Good or bad?
What are climate models?
Essentially, climate modles are computer generated mathematical representations of the climate system. They are able to predict future climates, recreate past climates, and successfully simulate the current climate both globally and on smaller scales. Climate models are also used to predict weather and make seasonal forecasts, as they are very good at representing seasonal and interannual variablity.
Climate models are extremly important to climate scientists because of their ability to predict future climates. This could help us, as humans, learn how to adapt to future climates. Climate models also show scientists what certain factors do to contribute to changes in climate, so that we can avoid these in the future.
Climate models are extremly important to climate scientists because of their ability to predict future climates. This could help us, as humans, learn how to adapt to future climates. Climate models also show scientists what certain factors do to contribute to changes in climate, so that we can avoid these in the future.
The good...
- Climate models are based on fundemental laws of physics, making their results possible, if nothing else.
- They can simulate current and past aspects of the climate, so they are able to process information and produce predictions that make sense and can be proven by observation.
- They can predict weather (short term) and make seasonal forecasts, so we can use them to predict weather.
- Climate models can show seasonal and interannual variability. This means that any results they produce will take these factors into account.
- Software, computing power, and scientific observations are always being improved therefore, climate models are always improving and becoming better at what they do.
The bad...
- Climate models are less reliable on smaller scales, making it hard to find local climate change.
- They aren't very good at simulating tropical precipitation.
- There are limitations to scientific understanding and detailed observations of some processes.
- There are significant uncertainties regarding the represntation of clouds and the impact that climate change would have on clouds.
- Limitations in computing power make it hard to represent many small scale factors.
The final word...
Even though climate models have some problems that need to be worked out before they are reliable on a small scale, they have proven their significant power to predict and simulate climates. The biggest problem when it comes to climate models is their tenency to over-simplify in the representation of climates, but even this can be solved with more scientific observation and improvements in computing software and power.
Overall, climate models are a good way to get a general sense of past, present, and future climates, but they can't be relied on to provide exact measurements when it comes down to the wire. After all, they are simply simulations.
Overall, climate models are a good way to get a general sense of past, present, and future climates, but they can't be relied on to provide exact measurements when it comes down to the wire. After all, they are simply simulations.
Evaluating a climate model
What's there?
- The three graphs shown depict glacier size, sun's energy, and heat-trapping gases
- Glacier Size is measured in meters of water equivalent
- The range of glacier size is about -20 to 0
- Sun's energy is measured in W/m2
- The range of sun's energy is 1350 to 1370
- The range of heat-trapping gases is 0.6 to 1.6
- The x-axis for all of the graphs is years
- The range of years is from about 1978 to 2012
- The level heat-trapping gases has increased while the sun's energy has stayed about the same and the size of glaciers has decreased
What Can be inferred?
- The sun's energy has not had a significant impact on the size of glaciers
- The sun's energy has not had a significant impact in the amount of heat-trapping gases
- There is a correlation between heat-trapping gases and the size of glaciers
- The amount of heat-trapping gases may play a role in the size of glaciers
- There may be other factors impacting the decreasing glacier size
Questions?
- What units is the amount of heat-trapping gas measured in?
- Do heat-trapping gas have an effect on temperature?
- How can we lower the amount of heat-trapping gases we emit?
- If the earth continues to follow this trend, how long will it take for all of the glaciers to melt?
- What other factors could contribute to this increase in temperature?